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If there were any doubts about the fledgling administration, they were allayed until Tuesday, when OMB Director Chris Adkins — the architect of Pence's campaign "Roadmap" and his policy wizard — rolled out the first budget. It was there that the policy cornerstone of the Pence campaign met the realities of Statehouse sausage production and a fitful economy that has seen Indiana's jobless rate hover in the 8 percent range for more than two years. The 10 percent income tax cut which Pence unveiled last July without input or the imprimatur of Speaker Bosma, Senate President David Long, or Senate Appropriations Chairman Luke Kenley would serve as the $790 million thrust of the proposed $28 billion biennial budget.
School funding would increase by a tiny 1%, and Medicaid funding could gobble up 80 percent of the $1.2 billion surplus in the first year alone. That element was creating what Pat Kiely, former Ways & Means chairman and current Indiana Manufacturers Association President, would call a "surplus mirage."
As the Pence administration began on a cold January morning, the temperature permeated the reaction of legislative fiscal leaders with frosty pragmatism. "We'd like to be heroes and cut taxes," said Kenley. "You also need to be prepared to take care of your priorities and you need to have enough money to do that."
Said Ways & Means Chairman Tim Brown, "It is on the priority list. I don't know where it falls right now."
Essentially, the Pence income tax cut will be held hostage by events and statistics beyond his control, until the April revenue forecast is manifest. Thus, the success of the No. 1 Pence priority will be outside of his hand for almost three months. It is a risky proposition for a politician who has aspirations for the White House, possibly as early as 2016. Thus, getting strongly out of the gates is vital in that context.
Rookie governors do not always get what they want. In 2005, Gov. Daniels sought a one-year 1% tax hike on "the very rich" and that was rejected. Both newly minted Gov. Evan Bayh in 1989 and Frank O'Bannon in 1997 inherited 50/50 split Houses, and both ended up with special sessions.
The Great Depression prompted newly elected Democratic Gov. Paul McNutt, along with two super majorities in the House and Senate, to overhaul the state's bureaucracy, initiate the gross income tax, while creating work programs that would eventually forge jobs for 75,000 Hoosiers. Like McNutt, Pence comes to office with two super majorities, 69-31 in the House and 37-13 in the Senate. Thus, Pence finds himself at a unique and rare juncture.
But commanding legislative majorities don't mean the governor always gets what he wants.
Gov. Roger D. Branigin, fresh off the 1964 Democratic landslide, ended up vetoing more than 100 bills.
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