Since the state enacted property tax caps in 2008, there have been 88 attempts by schools in Indiana to impose additional property tax levies through voter referenda.
Fifty-two percent have failed, and 48 percent have succeeded, according to a referenda scorecard maintained by the Center for Evaluation & Education Policy at Indiana University.
There are nearly 300 school districts in Indiana.
Purdue University economist Larry DeBoer, who has analyzed the referenda, says there are too many unmeasurable indicators to accurately predict the outcome of next week’s Muncie Community Schools referendum asking voters to approve a new tax levy to continue operating school buses.
But he has learned the following:
School tax levy referenda are more likely to pass in a May election than in a November election; they are more likely to pass in urban areas than in rural areas; they are more likely to pass if the proposed tax rate is less than 15 cents; they are more likely to pass in communities with per capita household income of $35,000 or more; and the referenda success rate appears to be increasing.
At one point, DeBoer thought he had run enough equations to privately predict results, but he found that he could “only do slightly better than flipping a coin, because there are too many unmeasurables out there, so I gave up predicting.”
For example, DeBoer, a longtime expert in local government finance, said he couldn’t measure the effectiveness of local campaigns for and against referenda or the popularity of school superintendents.
But again, he can say that in more rural areas, only 33 percent of referenda have passed, compared to 53 percent passing in more urban areas like Muncie.
In areas with higher household incomes, 64 percent of referenda have passed, compared to only 37 percent in areas with lower household incomes like Muncie.
Before May of 2011, only 44 percent of school referenda passed. Since then, 64 percent have passed. This past May, five of seven passed, and one of the ones that didn’t failed by a few votes.
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